Executive Summary

While 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous years for Latin America’s retail industry, it will also be remembered as the year when the region became the world's fastest-growing retail ecommerce market.

How did the coronavirus pandemic impact total retail sales in Latin America?

Physical store closures, coupled with government-mandated lockdowns, hurt retailers’ bottom lines last year. This year, retail sales will return to growth in each of the countries we forecast.

Why was 2020 a watershed year for retail ecommerce in Latin America?

Until the pandemic, retail ecommerce was still in the early stages of consumer adoption. But in 2020, as retailers and consumers quickly pivoted toward ecommerce, sales soared 63.3% and surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time.

How much are consumers in Latin America prioritizing mcommerce?

From 2016 to 2019, mobile’s share of retail ecommerce sales in Latin America nearly doubled from 20.9% to 40.2%. This year, we forecast that nearly half (48.8%) of retail ecommerce sales will take place on mobile devices.

How did the pandemic accelerate digital buyer growth in Latin America?

2020 was a record-setting year for digital buyer growth in the region. We forecast that 38.0 million consumers in Latin America were first-time digital buyers in 2020. This year, total digital buyers will rise to 248.7 million, or nearly half the region’s population ages 14 and older.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report features our latest forecasts for total retail, ecommerce, and mcommerce sales in Latin America, with breakouts for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. It also examines key drivers fueling regional market movements in 2021 and beyond.

KEY STAT: Retail ecommerce sales in Latin America grew 63.3% in 2020 to $104.60 billion. This was five times greater than the 12.5% growth we estimated in our pre-pandemic November 2019 forecast and more than triple the 19.4% estimated growth in our May 2020 forecast.

What’s Inside:

This report contains our latest forecasts for retail ecommerce and digital buyers in Latin America through 2025. It includes our estimates for the following areas:

Total retail and ecommerce spending by country
Retail ecommerce spending by country
Retail mcommerce spending by country
Retail ecommerce sales by company
Digital buyers and penetration by country
Social buyers and penetration by country
Cross-border retail ecommerce buyers and penetration by country

Behind the Numbers

Our forecast for retail ecommerce sales in Latin America is updated on a biannual basis in order to continually incorporate the latest changes and developments in the market. Our forecasting methodology is based upon analysis of 1,094 metrics from 135 sources, including estimates from third-party research sources, retail industry sources, government releases covering macro-level economic conditions, and incorporates retail ecommerce sales data and revenues as reported by major online retailers in Latin America. We also incorporate relevant consumer buying trends and mobile device adoption, which play a large role in the uptake of ecommerce shopping.

We include the following consumer categories in our definition of retail ecommerce sales:

Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales; electronics and appliance sales; building material and gardening equipment sales; food and beverage sales; health and personal care sales; gasoline sales; clothing and clothing accessories sales; sporting goods, hobby, book, and physical music sales; general merchandise sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e., pure-play ecommerce platform sales, mail-order sales, etc.); digital download sales (movies, music, content, etc.); consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform sales (eBay, auction sites, etc.).

Retail ecommerce sales include the sale of products and related services ordered using the internet, regardless of fulfillment method.

We exclude the following consumer categories from our definition of retail ecommerce sales:

Food services and drinking place sales (i.e., restaurant sales, restaurant delivery ordered online); travel sales; event ticket sales; payments such as bill pay, taxes or money transfers; gambling and other vice good sales.